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NOTE!!! After producing radiowave propagation forecasts for 89 consecutive weeks I've decided to take some time off. This will be effective on Friday October 30, 2009. The propagation forecast will return on Friday December 4, 2009.

NZ4O DAILY LF/MF/HF/6M FREQUENCY RADIOWAVE PROPAGATION FORECAST #2009-38

“A Radiowave Propagation Forecast For Hams And Shortwave Listeners”

Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY

Published on Friday 10/23/2009 at 0000 UTC

Valid 0000 UTC Saturday 10/24/2009 through 2359 UTC Friday 10/30/2009

CONTEST INFORMATION-

Three contests are scheduled for the weekend of Saturday-Sunday 10/24-25/2009:

As a contester my personal favorite is:

CQ Worldwide DX SSB Contest

On Thursday 10/22/2009 the contesting community received the shocking and tragic news of the death of four well known contesters in the crash of a private airplane. Lost were Peter Radding, W2GJ/C6APR, the pilot and passengers Ed Steeble
K3IXD/C6AXD, Randy Hargenrader K4QO/C6AQO and Dallas Carter W3PP. Our deepest sympathies go out to the surviving family members and friends.
 

For more information on contests worldwide check out the WA7BNM website at http://www.hornucopia.com/contestcal/weeklycont.php and the SM3CER Contest Service website at http://www.sk3bg.se/contest . Here is an interesting website about contesting in general. It's called the Contesting Compendium http://wiki.contesting.com/index.php/Main_Page . Last but not least is the ARRL Contest Branch at http://www.arrl.org/contests .

GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH EMPHASIS ON LF AM BROADCAST BAND-

There exists a long distance “daytime” propagation medium between approximately 30-100 kc. The transmitted signal wave guides between the D layer and the surface of the Earth.

Some daytime sky wave propagation also occurs between approximately 100-300 kc via the E layer, especially at higher latitudes in the winter time and at the bottom of a solar cycle.

Reception is tied to the density of the D layer, as well as the E layer at radio Aurora altitude. Geomagnetic storming will suppress night time reception of signals but enhance day time reception of signals. High power broadcasters are more readily heard than low power ham radio signals. Therefore often times the propagation forecast for the high power broadcasters will be better than for ham's.

The forecast is for night time only.

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON 600 METERS, THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-

Magnetic Equator-

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi /5200 km

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 mi / 5200 km

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL F/F2 LAYER HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Lower frequency HF (80-30 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner not by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time but rather due to geomagnetic storms that increase signal absorption via the E layer (the altitude of the radio aurora). Also increases in the lowest usable frequency (LUF) via D layer signal absorption due to elevated background solar flux levels and proton flux levels at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0).

Higher frequency (20-10 meters) propagation conditions are impacted in a negative manner by variations in the maximum usable frequency (MUF) along a particular propagation path and time due to the current sunspot number and also due to geomagnetic storms. D layer signal absorption due to elevated proton flux at energies greater than 10 MeV (10+0) and elevated background solar flux levels, is usually but not always inconsequential on 20-10 meters.

As follows are examples of how to apply the propagation forecast to your location (QTH).

(1) If you live in Tampa, FL, USA and want to work into Salt Lake City, UT, USA which is an approximate 2000 Mi / 3200 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(1) If you live in London, England and want to work into Moscow, Russia which is an approximate 2000 Mi / 3200 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(2) If you live in New York City, NY and want to work into London, England which is an approximate 4000 Mi / 6500 km distance, the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

(2) If you live in Moscow, Russia and want to work into Perth, Australia which is an approximate 8000 Mi / 1300 km distance the forecast is for good propagation conditions.

As far as band openings:

Short 100-300 miles, medium 300-500 miles, long greater than 4000 miles.

160 meters is open at day time out to very short distances and medium to long distances at night time, best in winter.

80 and 60 meters are open at day time out to short and medium distances and long distances at night time, best in winter.

40 and 30 meters are open at day time out to short and medium distances and long distances at night time in summer, closed in winter.

20 and 17 meters are open at day time out to medium to long distances in winter, also long distances at night time during solar maximum, closed at solar minimum and in winter night time.

15, 12 and 10 meters are open at day time out to long distances in winter, also long distances at night time during solar maximum, closed at solar minimum and in winter night time.

Magnetic Equator-

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE-

80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian and cross Equatorial propagation conditions

greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast

(TP) North America Via Trans Pacific and cross Equatorial to Oceania/Australia/New Zealand propagation conditions

greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and trans-equatorial (TE) propagation modes which involve the F2/3 layer.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE-

80-30 meters ham/90-31 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

20-17 meters ham/25-17 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

15 meters ham/13 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave broadcast

(TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions greater than 4000 mi / 6500 km.

Note!!! At times propagation conditions on 12-10 meters ham/11 meters shortwave will be FAIR to GOOD, via the less predictable Sporadic E (Es) and trans-equatorial (TE) propagation modes which involve the F2/3 layer.

Propagation Forecast Scale-

GLOBAL HF 50-54 MC (6 METER) PROPAGATION MODES AND STRENGTHS EXPECTED FORECAST-

For more information about meteor shower events check out http://stardate.org/nightsky/meteors .

Propagation Forecast Scale-

For global real time information concerning 6 meter band openings check out the VHFDX website at:

http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php?Frec=MUF

A good source of information concerning 6 meter band openings via troposphere ducting in the U.S. is at:

http://www.dxinfocentre.com/tropo.html

GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-

U.S. near real time lightning strike data:

http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

A global view of near real time lightning strike data:

http://webflash.ess.washington.edu  

Northern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season proximity to the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect MODERATE thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems, also tropical warm core low pressure systems .

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect LOW thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere low latitude regions can expect HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect VERY HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
 
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect MODERATE TO HIGH thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.

Lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75, 60/60 and 40/41 meters in the northern hemisphere.

Lightning QRN will hamper receive conditions on 160/120, 80/75, 60/60, 40/41, 30/31 and 20/22 meters in the southern hemisphere.

Lightning Induced Noise (QRN) Forecast Scale-

SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-

Recurrent northern hemisphere Coronal Hole #384 (#382) will become geo-effective (Earth facing) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it will be >400 m/s and the negative impact to propagation conditions a Kp of 4.

New southern hemisphere Coronal Hole #383 will become geo-effective (Earth facing) and the associated high velocity solar wind stream emanating from it will be >500 m/s and the negative impact to propagation conditions a Kp of 5.

Formation of a new geo-effective (Earth facing) coronal hole is possible during the forecast period but is nearly impossible to forecast.

Globally with the daily sunspot number as high as 30 and vaguely related solar flux level as high as 75; increased F layer MUFs will positively impact 10, 12, 15, 17 and 20 meters.

There will be Sporadic E (Es) propagation openings on 6-80 meters.

In the northern hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUFs, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 17 and 15 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 12 and 10 meters.

In the southern hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore lower MUFs, there will be little east-west F layer propagation on 10, 12 and 15, meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.

No sunspot groups will contain a twisted magnetic field capable of producing small C class, medium sized M class and large sized X class solar flares during the forecast period.

Formation of a new solar cycle 24 sunspot group is possible during the forecast period but is difficult to forecast. One tip off is a rising background solar flux level. There is a new Plage that has formed near #11028 and could produce sunspots in future days.

The following recurrent sunspot group(s) may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if it/they survived the back side transit- #11028 with an alpha magnetic signature. On Thursday 10/22/2009 #11028 is a spotless Plage, however it is possible that new sunspots could emerge during the forecast period.

Also looking at the latest NASA stereo behind imagery, two new Plage regions should rise above the eastern limb of the Sun on Friday 10/23/2009 and could contain sunspots.

Transequatorial (TE) HF propagation will occur during the local afternoon and evening period along an approximate 2500 miles path either side of the magnetic equator between North and South America will occur, as well between Africa and Europe/West Asia and also Australia and Eastern Asia/Oceania.

There will be minor signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high, mid and low latitude propagation paths in the northern hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

There will be moderate signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high, mid and low latitude propagation paths in the southern hemisphere. The moderate absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

There will be minor signal absorption on the LF band on high, mid and low latitude paths in the northern hemisphere. The minor absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

There will be moderate signal absorption on the LF band on high, mid and low latitude propagation paths in the southern hemisphere. The moderate absorption will degrade propagation conditions.

Note the following Kp forecast is produced by NZ4O not NOAA/SWPC.

The following (Kp) planetary geomagnetic conditions are forecasted:

10/24-25/2009- Kp 1-3, isolated 4.

10/26-30/2009- Kp 0-2, isolated 3.

 Kp Indices-

During the period quiet (Kp 0, 1, 2) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions WILL OCCUR.

During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions MAY OCCUR.

During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions WILL NOT OCCUR.

The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is LOW.

The chance of a daylight side sudden ionosphere disturbances (SID) radio blackout from a solar flares is LOW.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) is LOW.

The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal mass ejection (CME) is MODERATE.

The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole is HIGH.

Daily maximum/minimum solar flux index levels (SFI) will range between 73 and 69.  However the SFI could be boosted to a higher level depending on what happens with Plage #11028, also the two new Plage regions which will rise above the eastern limb of the Sun on Friday 10/23/2009, which could contain or produce sunspots.

The probability of a very small B class solar flare is MODERATE.

The probability of a small C class solar flare is LOW.

The probability of a large M class solar flare is LOW.

The probability of a very large X class solar flare is LOW.

When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity is negative the probability of geomagnetic storming on Earth increases. The NOAA/SWPC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) to be NEGATIVE.

SPACE WEATHER SCALES-

The Kp index is a measure of geomagnetic activity for the previous three hour period.

 Kp Indices-

The Ap index is a measure of geomagnetic activity for the previous 24 hour day.

Ap Indices-

GENERAL GUIDELINES CONCERNING CORRELATION OF PROPAGATION INDICES TO ACTUAL MF/HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS-

NOTE!!!  The propagation indices "interpretations" are my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation indices interpretations contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2009 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O, all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed without permission in advance as long as proper credit is given.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.

2.) A solar flux of 150 or higher, 200+ best, for medium frequencies under 100, fewer than 70 best.

Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a "reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere for F layer medium frequency refractions, as the energy of photons at this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better indicator is the background X-Ray Flux. See #7 below.

3.) A solar flux in the mid 100’s for routine stable formation of the E Valley/F Layer ducting mechanism.
 
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, fewer than 7 for several days consecutively are best.

5.) Previous 3 hours Kp index fewer than 3 for mid latitude paths, fewer than 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0).

7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than A1 for several days consecutively.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with a (positive number) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path Aurora absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of medium frequency RF signals, when the Kp is above 3.

10.) A -20 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery time after a Geomagnetic Storm, as related to the equatorial ring current. A positive number is best.

11.) Rising positive T index number. The T Index tracks with the F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) and sunspot number (SSN) and indicates the capability of the F2 layer to refract RF signals.

Standard Disclaimer-

Note! I use error prone RAW public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my propagation forecasts. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast that I produce from the RAW public domain data is my personal intellectual property. Therefore the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2009 by Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O. Reproduction of and distribution of information herein is allowed without advanced permission as long as proper credit is given.

Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The forecasts are not official but for hobby related purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.